Oil, Security and Global Strategy: Why Putin Is Heading to Delhi for Talks with Modi
Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun a two-day trip to India, where he will sit down with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and take part in the two countries’ annual leadership summit.
During the visit, Delhi and Moscow are expected to ink several agreements. The timing is noteworthy: it comes after months of pressure from Washington urging India to scale back its purchases of Russian crude.
It also coincides with the Trump administration’s ongoing diplomatic efforts with both Russia and Ukraine to bring the conflict to an end.
India and Russia have enjoyed a close partnership for generations, and the personal rapport between Modi and Putin has further strengthened that bond. Here’s why both sides need each other—and what developments are worth paying attention to.
A long-standing partnership shaped by trade, energy and global politics
Why does the Kremlin value its relationship with India?
For Moscow, India represents a vital market. Consider the basics:
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A population nearing 1.5 billion
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Economic expansion surpassing 8%, making India the fastest-growing major economy
These factors make India an attractive buyer for Russian commodities—particularly crude oil.
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, has dramatically expanded its imports of Russian crude. Before Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine, only about 2.5% of India’s oil imports came from Russia. After sanctions pushed Russian oil prices downward and cut Moscow off from much of Europe, India ramped that share up to roughly 35%.
India benefited from the discounted prices. Washington, however, was displeased.
Earlier this year, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US, arguing that India’s appetite for Russian oil was indirectly financing Moscow’s military campaign. Since then, India has reduced its orders—something Putin is eager to reverse.
Arms sales are another cornerstone of Russian interests. Moscow has been a major supplier of India’s military hardware since the Soviet era. Ahead of Putin’s arrival, reports surfaced that India may be preparing to acquire new high-tech Russian fighter aircraft and air defence systems.
Because Russia faces labour shortages at home, Indian skilled workers are also increasingly valuable to the Kremlin.
But the relationship isn’t just about economics—it’s geopolitical.
Russia is keen to project that Western attempts to isolate it over the Ukraine war have fallen flat. High-profile diplomatic engagements—like Putin meeting Modi in Delhi or visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping—serve as symbolic proof that Moscow still has influential partners and is committed to a “multi-polar world”.
Moscow often praises its “no-limits” cooperation with China, and speaks just as enthusiastically about its “special and privileged strategic partnership” with India.
That stands in stark contrast to Russia’s deteriorated relations with Europe.
Some Russian analysts argue that, while the Kremlin sees Asia and the Global South as the future, the complete political break with Europe is unprecedented—and a significant loss.
Still, this week’s messaging will focus on strengthened ties between Moscow and Delhi, expanded trade and reassurances of mutual support.
Modi’s balancing act: Maintaining “strategic autonomy”
Putin’s arrival comes at a pivotal moment for Modi, as India tries to assert itself as a global power while navigating competing pressures.
India’s connection to Russia dates back to the Soviet period and has persisted through shifting world politics. Putin has invested considerable personal effort into maintaining this bond.
Modi, meanwhile, has resisted strong pressure from Western nations to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, insisting that dialogue—not public criticism—is the only path to resolution. This reflects India’s long-standing doctrine of “strategic autonomy”: maintaining independent foreign-policy choices without aligning fully with any side.
This approach worked—until Donald Trump returned to power. India-US relations have soured, as tariff negotiations remain unresolved. Against this backdrop, Putin’s visit becomes even more significant.
Modi must signal that he values Moscow’s partnership and will not bow to American pressure. At the same time, he must reassure Europe, which recently issued a rare joint diplomatic criticism of Russia’s Ukraine policy.
The task ahead is delicate: strengthening ties with Russia without jeopardising India’s trade talks with Washington or its growing cooperation with European partners.
Revamping trade and reducing imbalance
Another key objective for Modi will be addressing the huge imbalance in trade. While India-Russia commerce has grown sharply—reaching $68.7bn by March 2025, up from just $8.1bn in 2020—this increase has been almost entirely fuelled by India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil.
As Indian refiners now scale back oil imports to avoid angering Washington, both countries must explore new areas for cooperation.
Defence is the most obvious option. India has reduced its dependence on Russian-made weapons in recent years, diversifying suppliers and boosting local production. Russian-origin weapons dropped from 72% of India’s imports in 2010–2015 to 36% in 2020–2024.
Yet India’s military still relies heavily on Russian systems. Most of its fighter squadrons use Russian-built Sukhoi-30 jets. The brief conflict with Pakistan in May underscored the critical importance of Russian S-400 missile systems—while also exposing India’s vulnerabilities.
Reports suggest Delhi is interested in acquiring the new S-500 defence system and Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet, partly in response to Pakistan’s acquisition of China’s J-35 stealth aircraft.
However, Western sanctions have slowed Russia’s production of key components, delaying deliveries—some S-400 units may not arrive until 2026. Modi is expected to seek firm delivery assurances.
He also wants Moscow to open its domestic market to more Indian goods. At the moment, Indian exports to Russia—such as smartphones, shrimp, meat and clothing—remain tiny compared to Russian sales.
Modi hopes to secure a greater foothold for Indian products, especially once the war ends and Russia is reintegrated into the global economy.
The long-term goal is to diversify the relationship: reduce the heavy dependence on oil and defence, and build a broader economic partnership that allows India to strengthen ties with Russia without closing doors to the West.
As the GTRI think tank observed:
Putin’s visit isn’t about nostalgia—it’s a negotiation over economic risk, supply chains and strategic insulation. A modest agreement would safeguard cooperation on energy and defence. A more ambitious one could reshape trade dynamics across the region.
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